School District Funding Models

Curt Cignetti will soon sign a new contract with Indiana that pays him at least $12.5 million per year. But after digging into the numbers, Cignetti might still be the most undervalued coach in college football (and not for the reason you might think). We all know what Cignetti has done at IU is remarkable — he turned a perennial cellar-dweller into the national championship favorite just two years after his arrival. This has transformed IU's athletic department: • Before the 2025 season even kicked off, ticket revenue for IU football surpassed $13 million. • Indiana announced a $50 million stadium naming rights deal with Merchants Bank. • Fundraising hit a record high, with billionaire IU alum Mark Cuban donating to the athletic department for the first time. But that’s the obvious stuff; Cignetti’s real impact comes in the admissions office. IU’s football team is essentially a marketing vehicle for the university — 24 million people watched them win the Rose Bowl, 18 million watched them win the Big Ten Championship, and when College Gameday visited campus, more than 2 million people watched a three-hour commercial about the school. This exposure is worth hundreds of millions of dollars and is already impacting Indiana’s finances. In 2025 alone, Indiana University set school records for total enrollment (48,626 students), freshman class size (10,127), first-year out-of-state students (4,697), and applications (73,400). Indiana University Applicants • 2020-21: 46,623 • 2021-22: 50,159 • 2022-23: 54,345 • 2023-24: 67,731 • 2024-25: 73,400 Because IU can only admit so many students, it uses excess demand to 1) shift enrollment toward out-of-state students and 2) become more selective academically. Out-of-state students now account for roughly 50% of total enrollment, with 4,697 new non-residents admitted in 2025 — about 500 more than IU’s previous record. That matters because out-of-state students pay $30,000 more per year in tuition — $12,000 for residents versus $42,000 for non-residents. 500 new out-of-state students x $30,000 tuition difference ––––––––– = $15 million annually Over four years, those students are worth $60 million more than in-state students. And since football success attracts more applicants, IU can raise its academic bar. Indiana’s Fall 2025 class had a median high school GPA of 3.94 — the highest in school history. This creates a virtuous cycle. Better sports → more applicants → better students → higher rankings → even more applicants and higher tuition revenue. This is exactly what happened at Alabama with Nick Saban, and it’s why Indiana is comfortable giving Cignetti new contracts every year. P.S. If you enjoyed this breakdown, join 135,000 others who learn about the business and money behind sports by reading my 3x weekly newsletter: https://lnkd.in/dF2E-Qc2 #sports #sportsbiz

The U.S. colleges are at risk as international student numbers plummet. Forbes analysis and U.S. data suggest a sharp decline in international student enrollment, sparking alarm among U.S. colleges that depend on foreign tuition to stay afloat. 📌 What just happened - Over 1 million international students attend U.S. institutions each year, contributing $44 billion to the economy through tuition, housing, and living expenses. - However, fears over visa restrictions and enforcement actions have triggered a 40% drop in interest among prospective international students. - A 10% reduction in new enrollments could cost U.S. universities up to $900 million, while full attrition across all international students might hit $3 billion in lost revenue. 📌 Why it matters - With over 162 colleges reliant on international student enrollment (15%+ of total students), sustained reductions could push schools into a budget crisis. - International students represent roughly 70% of graduate students in key STEM fields like engineering and computer science. - As the U.S. becomes less welcoming, countries like Canada and Australia are snapping up talent, threatening America’s position as a global education hub. The clock is ticking. International student enrollment fuels universities, supports STEM innovation, and strengthens the U.S. economy. Without action, we could see more campus closures and a weakened future talent base. DM or email info@lodestonelegal.com for any kind of queries. #education #immigration #students #STEM #economy #policy #USA

Public school enrollment is projected to decline by approximately 3 million students over the next five years. This decline will be driven by a combination of population loss and student migration to private and charter schools.   For investors and companies serving the sector, there are structural implications: - Per-pupil public funding pressure will compress district budgets, increasing scrutiny on discretionary spend - Cost optimization will become a greater priority, driving demand for efficiency-focused software and outsourced services - Student migration will shift purchasing power, as funding follows students into charter and, in some cases, private environments - Geography matters, with funding stability and enrollment declines varying significantly by state   In a declining volume environment, high quality vendors that align to high priority spend areas, and who drive some combination of cost savings, compliance, workforce optimization, or measurable outcomes are likely to outperform the rest of the market.   Our analysis breaks down the sources of enrollment attrition and how funding flows may shift as a result. This is post 5 out of 7 of the series on, "The Enrollment Reset: What's Reshaping ECE and K-12."

The University of Oregon's president just sent a budget letter to their entire campus community. Letter attached below. The message: enrollment is the single biggest factor in their operating budget, and they don't have a clear picture yet. Competition for out-of-state and international students is fiercer than it's ever been. The enrollment cliff is happening in real time. High school graduates peaked at roughly 3.9 million in 2025. WICHE projects a 13% decline through 2041. The pipeline of tuition-paying students is shrinking, and it's not coming back. Now, layer on what's happening in athletics. Schools are spending up to $20.5 million per year in direct revenue sharing with athletes. NIL budgets keep climbing. The transfer portal is a year-round bidding war. Facilities and coaching salaries are at all-time highs. This spending makes sense, because winning drives enrollment, especially out-of-state enrollment, which is where the real tuition margin lives. A football program on national TV is the best recruiting tool a university has. But schools are spending more than ever on athletics at the exact moment the student pipeline is shrinking. And it's not just enrollment. I've heard rumblings from people at major corporate partners who are already planning to scale back university spending over the next decade because of projected campus population declines. The sponsors see the same data. Three forces converging: fewer students, rising athlete costs, shrinking corporate spend on campus. The schools that survive this will be the ones that build new revenue models - alumni business networks, brand partnerships built on real economic value, fan revenue systems - not the ones that keep spinning the same wheels with a shrinking budget. The enrollment cliff isn't separate from NIL, the portal, or the spending arms race. They're all the same story.

Yesterday, the UK Government announced that students in England will pay more for their university courses with tuition fees going up to £9,535 next year - the first increase in eight years. It is expected that the Welsh Government will follow suit with a similar increase imminently. Yet whilst this may look like a financial lifeline for many universities, in reality it may not even cover the cost of the increase in national insurance contributions for a high number of institutions. Indeed, the more immediate concern for some universities is whether they can survive the next 12 months without getting into more financial difficulties. Unfortunately, the latest survey data from the Chartered Association of Business Schools shows that three-quarters of business school Deans have reported lower international student enrolments than last year, of which 50% were significantly lower. Looking ahead, nearly half (44%) of Deans also expect enrolments in January 2025 to fall compared with last January’s intake, with a fifth expecting a significant decline. Why is this important? Basically, the fees from business students, in particular international students, are vital to the income of higher education institutions, with 100% of responding business schools reporting that their university’s finances were, to some extent, reliant on their ability to recruit international postgraduate business students. Given that, on average, it was reported that 60% of the net income generated by business schools is contributed to central university budgets, this massive decline is going to have a major effect on some universities' financial performance over the next 12 months, especially those whose entire strategy seems to have been focused on attracting higher fee paying overseas postgraduate students.

Is your marketing and sales strategy built for the district landscape of today, or two years ago? Just the other day, EdSource reported that California lost nearly 75,000 students this school year. The state had projected a loss of 10,000. That gap matters because California funds schools based on average daily attendance. Fewer students means less revenue, but the cost to run a school stays the same. LAUSD already issued 3,200 layoff notices. Districts across the state are cutting programs and staff. Two forces are driving the decline simultaneously. Birth rates have been falling for years. And immigration to California dropped from 312,761 to 109,278 between 2024 and 2025. Hispanic students, who make up 56% of California's student population, account for the largest raw loss — nearly 48,000 students in a single year. California isn't the only state watching this. Nationwide, K-12 enrollment has dropped by 1.18 million students over the past five years. Projections show another 2.7 million lost by 2031. Every state that released data this year showed a decline. For companies selling into districts, the headline number is only part of the story. Enrollment decline compresses budgets directly and immediately. It shifts the demographic composition of the districts you're selling into. And it changes what district leaders are prioritizing and when. Clare Harrison and I spend a lot of time helping edtech clients understand exactly these kinds of shifts, because the sales and marketing strategies that worked two years ago were built for a different landscape. #K12Sales #EdTech AlchemyK12 https://lnkd.in/eM5xHqzy

U.S. International Student Enrollment Drops: A Looming Economic Threat Early data this fall shows a worrying decline in new international student enrollment at U.S. colleges, a trend that could have tremendous economic implications for institutions and local communities alike. The Current Situation While the full national picture isn't clear, preliminary data and reports from individual schools indicate a significant drop. For example: New international enrollment fell 25% at Edmonds College and 36% at Bellevue College. DePaul University reported a massive 62% drop in new international graduate students. Total arrivals of international students in August were down 19% from last year, the largest decline outside of the pandemic. Experts point to recent changes in U.S. policy and an atmosphere of uncertainty as major drivers, including visa appointment pauses, enhanced applicant vetting, and travel bans. The Financial Fallout International students are a crucial revenue stream. In 2023-2024, the 1.1 million students contributed nearly $44 billion to the U.S. economy and supported nearly 380,000 jobs. They are vital to university budgets because they generally pay full, non-subsidized tuition. If enrollment continues to drop, colleges especially smaller, specialized, and regional universities will face immense pressure. Loss of tuition revenue can force budget cuts, leading to layoffs and program reductions. A drop at Edmonds College alone could mean losing $1 million, enough to support 15 jobs. Some schools, like DePaul and Eastern Illinois, have already announced cuts citing this decline. Ripple Effect on Local Economies The economic pain won't stop at the campus gates. Universities are often the largest employers in their regions. When institutions cut faculty and staff jobs due to budget shortfalls, it hits the entire local economy. International students themselves support local businesses through renting, purchasing goods, and consumption. Small businesses near campuses like restaurants and shops could be forced to lay off staff or close if their student customer base significantly shrinks. This is a critical situation. Colleges are hoping for a rebound, but if applications for the next term continue to look weak, the financial and job implications across the U.S. could be severe. #InternationalEducation #HigherEd #Economy #EnrollmentDecline #HigherEducation

Ever had to justify recruitment spend to finance? The question usually sounds something like: "Why should we invest in recruitment firms when we could just rely on sites?" The short answer? The alternative can end up costing significantly more. But most clin ops leaders don't always have the financial framework ready to articulate why. They know delays are expensive... they just can't always quantify it on the spot. After working with hundreds of trial budgets, I've identified 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀 that drive patient recruitment ROI. (𝑁𝑜𝑡𝑒: 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒, 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘 𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑙𝑦.) 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟭: 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝘃𝗼𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 💰 Every trial has a monthly burn rate: site costs, CRO fees, monitoring, data management, safety reporting. When enrollment extends, these costs continue relentlessly. Real example from a 150-patient neuroscience trial:  • Monthly operational cost: $1.5M  • Timeline extension without recruitment support: 2.4 months  • Direct cost avoidance: $3.6M 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟮: 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝘃𝗼𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 ⏱️ Most teams plan for 60-80% site performance. We tracked this across 500+ sites... the median is closer to 52%. When enrollment stalls, the instinctive response? Add more sites. But each new site can cost $50K-$150K to activate... and sites added at month 6 often don't enroll patients until month 9. For that same trial, avoiding 6 rescue sites = $600K saved. 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟯: 𝗡𝗣𝗩 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 📈 The often the most overlooked lever. For a typical neuroscience program with $1B peak annual revenue, every day of delay can cost approximately $222K in NPV. That 2.4-month difference? Potentially worth $16M in lost value. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁: These levers don't just add together. They multiply.  • Direct cost avoidance: $3.6M  • Site cost avoidance: $600K  • NPV timeline value: $16.1M  • Total value created: $20.3M+ Against a recruitment investment of $600K... that's a 34x ROI. When you understand the financial mechanics, recruitment isn't just an expense. It can be one of the highest-ROI investments in your entire clinical program. 𝑊ℎ𝑎𝑡'𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 👇

Very impressive impact a new program focused on helping North Carolinians enroll in college at a fraction of the cost as elsewhere. Fun to see a former student and now friend of mine, David English, being interviewed about the program. Way to go David! Nice work on the story Brianna Atkinson! "The legislation passed as part of the 2016 state budget, and in 2018 NC Promise launched with three schools: Elizabeth City State University, an HBCU; University of North Carolina at Pembroke, a Historically American Indian University; and Western Carolina University, the westernmost institution in the UNC System. Four years later, another HBCU, Fayetteville State University, was added. State budget allocations started at up to $40 million per year for the three participating schools and was increased in each subsequent budget. The allocation is now $82.5 million. Almost immediately, the NC Promise schools saw sizable gains in enrollment — their highest in decades and reversing the trend of declines. For Elizabeth City State University, that growth likely helped prevent it from shutting down. University of North Carolina System Senior Vice President for Academic Affairs David English said the NC Promise Program has helped to both stabilize and grow enrollment. “[It’s helped] those institutions at a time where regional public universities across the country have faced some really difficult headwinds,” English said. Those national “headwinds” include changing opinions about the value of a degree, and a declining birth rate that’s resulting in fewer traditionally-aged students attending college. But the NC Promise program seems to have negated those factors at the participating schools. Elizabeth City State University had its highest enrollment in nine years this fall. Since it became an NC Promise institution, the university’s student body has grown more than 52%. In its first two years in the Promise program, 2018 and 2019, Western Carolina enrolled its two largest first-year classes. There were some enrollment dips during the pandemic, but the WCU student body has since bounced back. This year’s enrollment is the highest it's been since 2020. The first year NC Promise was implemented at Fayetteville State University (2022), the school had its largest enrollment in over 20 years. About 50 miles away in the economically challenged southeastern part of the state, UNC Pembroke had a new enrollment record the first year it was implemented (2018), and continued to break the record each year leading up to 2022. According to its 2021-2022 campus profile, UNCP experienced about a 32% increase in enrollment growth since NC Promise launched." https://lnkd.in/gcMhaN28