Techniques for Better Decision Making

Many senior leaders have a strong "do now" mentality. They want to "move fast", "take action", and "just try it". While this has proven successful in environments with high variability and low data (e.g. startups), it often backfires in situations that require complex decision-making or big organizational shifts. When "do now" is overly valued: 😓 Large reorgs turn messy and set the company back for quarters if not years. 😓 Teams experience constant churn and low ROI from launches, jumping from idea to idea too quickly. 😓 Underinvestment in first-order-negative-but-second-order-positive competitive differentiators, leading to a lack of long-term defensive moats. It turns out that many complex challenges that organizations and teams face today benefit from deep thinking first. To bring this balance into your organization, try the following: ✅ Work with leaders who prefer to "Think Deeply First", and be compassionate about their slower approach to decision-making. ✅ Invest time in debating alternatives, weighing various risks, or making sure everyone's opinions are heard. ✅ Open up your decision-making to a diverse team and take the time to truly hear feedback. Remember, when your "do now" clashes with another trusted leader's "think first", take a step back and consider whether a slower and more considered approach will have outsized benefit in the long term. ----- 👋 Hi! I'm Yue. I am a Chief Product and Technology Officer turned Executive Coach. I help women and minority aspiring executives break through to the C-suite. 🚀  🔔 Follow me for more content on coaching, leadership, and career growth.

✂️ How To Map Unintended Consequences of UX Decisions (https://lnkd.in/dprq_aGc), with practical techniques to visualize, map and start planning for unintended consequences of design decisions — with systems thinking, impact ripples, iceberg visuals and feedback loops. By Martin Tomitsch and Justin Farrugia. 🤔 Not every design outcome is predictable and linear. ✅ Small changes can set large ripple effects in motion. ✅ Users don’t act in isolation; they react to feedback loops. ✅ Immediate metrics (e.g. clicks) often mask long-term impact. 🚫 We often focus on UX flows → but overlook causality, ripples. ✅ Systems Maps visualize relationships and consequences. ✅ We study direct and indirect effects of a suggested change. ✅ Quadrant Matrix → We map changes on Impact vs. Repetition. ✅ Impact Ripple → Direct impact, Indirect Impact, Big Picture. ✅ Iceberg Model → Events, Patterns, Structures, Mental Model. No design decision exists in isolation. Often we try to use linear user journey maps to understand how people use our product or go through specific flows. We measure the impact of A/B tests to see if we achieve a desired outcome and move the needle. We track conversion, clicks, engagement. In other words, we track metrics that often hide the complexities of user interactions and relationships between features and flows in our products. Complex systems often have conflicting loops — a feature that drives short-term retention might drive long-term churn or abandonment. Often these effects are delayed, invisible and appear to be highly unlikely at first. So before focusing on fine details of a feature, it's always a good idea to sit down and explore direct and indirect impact of the changes — for different user profiles, and the different workflows that users apply daily. A great reminder that as designers we are often so focused on fine little details too early — mostly to outperform the competition in some way. But we often forget that our product must excel in user's workflows with a few critical systems, dozens of other apps and hundreds of other tabs. --- ✤ Useful Toolkits and Books: Designing Tomorrow, by Martin Tomitsch, Steve Baty https://lnkd.in/dmXEZREr Thinking in Systems: A Primer, by Donella Meadows https://lnkd.in/dXbm5EEA Good Services: How to Design Services that Work, by Louise Downe https://lnkd.in/d5SigzvX The Great Mental Models, by Rhiannon Beaubien https://lnkd.in/dnT_GtDT Useful Books on Systems Thinking, by James Pomeroy https://lnkd.in/dH7d9exZ #ux #design

Economic concepts aren’t just for policymakers and macroeconomic analysts—they’re also powerful tools for tech companies making data-driven decisions. In a recent tech blog, economists at Instacart share how their team applies economic concepts to estimate the long-term impact of membership incentives using surrogate indexes. Instacart offers a paid membership program (i.e. Instacart+), and the company provides incentives like free trials or discounted annual memberships to encourage users to explore its benefits. The challenge lies in optimizing these incentives to maximize a user’s long-term value (LTV) joining the program. However, since LTV unfolds over time, it isn't easy to measure directly. This raises a crucial question: how can the team create a reliable metric that effectively captures LTV, enabling faster experimentation and product optimization? To solve this, the team applies the concept of surrogate indexes from economics. A surrogate acts as a proxy for an unobserved outcome—whether because the outcome hasn’t occurred yet or because the data isn’t accessible. By mapping multiple observed variables to an unobserved outcome, a surrogate index enables a more accurate estimation of long-term effects. The process begins with building a strong data foundation by integrating historical incentive results and user behavior insights. With this foundation in place, the team develops a surrogate index model to estimate long-term effects, followed by rigorous backtesting to validate its accuracy. This ensures the model can reliably serve as a proxy for LTV, enabling data-driven decisions about membership incentives. By leveraging surrogate indexes, Instacart can make faster decisions about membership incentives impacts, and effectively balance short-term costs with long-term user retention and profitability. #DataScience #Economics #Analytics #SurrogateIndexes #Metrics #SnacksWeeklyonDataScience – – –  Check out the "Snacks Weekly on Data Science" podcast and subscribe, where I explain in more detail the concepts discussed in this and future posts:    -- Spotify: https://lnkd.in/gKgaMvbh   -- Apple Podcast: https://lnkd.in/gj6aPBBY    -- Youtube: https://lnkd.in/gcwPeBmR https://lnkd.in/dYqzXPBr

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗘𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁-𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗡𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 & 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗚𝗼𝗮𝗹𝘀 EA gets caught between the 𝗶𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 and the 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆. Some orgs embed EA into SA roles so projects meet current demands. Others make EA a billable function, tying value to immediate deliverables. Both approaches bring risks: ➡ When SAs wear EA hats, decisions are localized rather than strategically aligned, risking fragmented technology landscapes. ➡ When EA is billable, there’s pressure to justify work through short-term project outcomes over enterprise-wide impact. To drive transformation, EA must be a 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿. Here are 3 Ways EA Balances The Short- and Long-Term: 𝟭 | 𝗘𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗱 𝗘𝗔 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆, 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 EA shouldn’t just validate solutions—it should shape them. 𝙃𝙤𝙬?  ✔ Engage EA in strategy to align roadmaps with business goals.  ✔ Ensure decisions are more than tactical—connect them to enterprise-wide outcomes.  ✔ Establish EA governance so short-term decisions don't create long-term complexity. 📊 EA works best defining the guardrails—not just reviewing outputs. 𝟮 | 𝗕𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗪𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 Orgs need speed to stay competitive—but not at the cost of architectural integrity. 𝙃𝙤𝙬?  ✔ Iterative architecture allows for agile decision-making while maintaining long-term vision.  ✔ EA assesses the impact of emerging technologies before disrupting existing structures.  ✔ Use reference architectures and patterns to ensure scalability while allowing for flexibility. 🔄 EA helps businesses move fast—without breaking the foundation. 𝟯 | 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗘𝗔’𝘀 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗕𝗲𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 If EA is only evaluated by project success, its strategic influence diminishes. 𝙃𝙤𝙬?  ✔ 𝗧𝗶𝗲 𝗘𝗔 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲, not technical implementation.  ✔ Define KPIs that reflect cost savings, agility, and risk reduction.  ✔ Showcase EA’s role in long-term value creation, beyond project timelines. 🎯 EA’s success isn’t just about what gets built today—it’s about what remains sustainable tomorrow. 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆 Enterprise Architecture isn’t a support function—𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗿. 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗱𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽, 𝗘𝗔 𝗲𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝘀𝘂𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀. _ ➕ Follow Kevin Donovan, ring the bell 🔔 👍 Like  |  ♻️ Repost _ 🚀 Join Architects' Hub!  Sign up for our newsletter. Connect with a community that gets it. Improve skills, meet peers, and elevate your career! Subscribe 👉 https://lnkd.in/dgmQqfu2 #EnterpriseArchitecture #DigitalTransformation

Every Six Months, I Hit "Refresh" on My Life Every six months, I carve out time to reflect using my digital journal, My Tracker. Think of it as a personal Google Analytics for my life—nerdy, yes, but incredibly insightful. This “second brain” helps me uncover lessons and patterns, giving me a clear view of where I’ve been and where I want to go. Last year, when I reviewed feedback from my newsletter, two things stood out: 1️⃣ Readers value the thought-provoking content I share. 2️⃣ The decision-making tools resonate deeply. That insight fuels my motivation to keep going and, this year, to reach even more people who could benefit. If my newsletter has helped you, I’d love for you to share it with someone who might find value too (link in comments). How the 10-10-10 Rule Simplifies Tough Decisions As leaders—and humans—we face countless decisions every day. Some are small (What should I wear today?), and others are pivotal (Should I greenlight a project that could impact livelihoods?). When the decisions pile up, it’s easy to feel stuck or overwhelmed. That’s where the 10-10-10 Rule, popularized by NYU Business professor Suzy Welch, can be a game-changer. Here’s how it works: Evaluate the consequences of your decision across three time horizons: 1️⃣ 10 Minutes: How will I feel about this decision in the immediate short term? 2️⃣ 10 Months: What will the impact of this decision be in the medium term? 3️⃣ 10 Years: How might this decision shape my life, relationships, or career in the long run? This framework pushes us to consider not just the present but also our future selves. It’s a balance of emotional intelligence and strategic thinking—helping us act with clarity, empathy, and confidence. Bringing It to Life Take a tough business decision: Should you invest in a risky new project? + 10 Minutes: It feels daunting and risky right now. + 10 Months: It might lead to exciting new opportunities and growth. + 10 Years: This decision could transform your career, your team, or even your industry. The exercise reduces decision-making stress and ensures your choices align with your bigger “why.” What’s one decision you’ve been wrestling with? How might the 10-10-10 Rule bring clarity? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your perspective! #LeadershipDevelopment #DecisionMaking #FulfilmentAtWork #Clarity

Are your programs making the impact you envision or are they costing more than they give back? A few years ago, I worked with an organization grappling with a tough question: Which programs should we keep, grow, or let go? They felt stretched thin, with some initiatives thriving and others barely holding on. It was clear they needed a clearer strategy to align their programs with their long-term goals. We introduced a tool that breaks programs into four categories: Heart, Star, Stop Sign, and Money Tree each with its strategic path. -Heart: These programs deliver immense value but come with high costs. The team asked, Can we achieve the same impact with a leaner approach? They restructured staffing and reduced overhead, preserving the program's impact while cutting costs by 15%. -Star: High impact and high revenue programs that beg for investment. The team explored expanding partnerships for a standout program and saw a 30% increase in revenue within two years. -Stop Sign: Programs that drain resources without delivering results. One initiative had consistently low engagement. They gave it a six-month review period but ultimately decided to phase it out, freeing resources for more promising efforts. -Money Tree: The revenue generating champions. Here, the focus was on growth investing in marketing and improving operations to double their margin within a year. This structured approach led to more confident decision-making and, most importantly, brought them closer to their goal of sustainable success. According to a report by Bain & Company, organizations that regularly assess program performance against strategic priorities see a 40% increase in efficiency and long-term viability. Yet, many teams shy away from the hard conversations this requires. The lesson? Every program doesn’t need to stay. Evaluating them through a thoughtful lens of impact and profitability ensures you’re investing where it matters most. What’s a program in your organization that could benefit from this kind of review?

The Hidden Risk of Misaligned MSOPs: Balancing Incentives with Long-Term Growth When not properly structured, Management Stock Option Plans (MSOPs) can shift from being a powerful incentive to a strategic liability—where short-term stock gains take precedence over long-term enterprise value While MSOPs are designed to align leadership ambition with shareholder interests, a misalignment often creates a performance paradox—driving executives to optimize for immediate stock price movements rather than fostering enterprise resilience and transformational growth. This short-sighted approach doesn’t just distort decision-making; it gradually erodes a company’s ability to maintain a sustainable competitive advantage Where Does the Disconnect Happen? ⚠️ Over-fixation on stock price incentives leads to risk aversion, discouraging bold, transformative decisions ⚠️ Rigid vesting timelines fail to accommodate the unpredictable pace of innovation and market evolution ⚠️ Misaligned MSOPs reward individual achievements over collective success, fragmenting leadership focus How Can We Realign MSOPs with Strategic Vision? 📌 Integrate broader KPIs: Move beyond stock price metrics—incorporate innovation milestones, strategic impact, and stakeholder value. 📌 Shift to milestone-based vesting: Replace time-based rewards with goal-oriented incentives that drive meaningful outcomes. 📌 Encourage cross-functional collaboration: Design MSOPs that align executive incentives with company-wide synergies, preventing siloed decision-making. 📌 Extend vesting horizons: Link MSOPs to long-term strategic initiatives, ensuring leadership remains focused on sustainable growth. When leadership incentives are tied solely to short-term performance, true innovation suffers. The most significant victories aren’t achieved overnight—they are the result of forward-thinking strategies that may seem small today but position companies far ahead of the competition tomorrow MSOPs should be more than just incentives; they should be the cornerstone of sustainable leadership and long-term value creation What are your thoughts on structuring MSOPs for lasting impact? Let’s discuss!

Every task that comes to me is urgent and important. Sound familiar? This is a challenge many of us face daily. Early in my career, prioritization was relatively straightforward—my manager told me what to focus on. But as I grew, the game changed. Suddenly, I was managing a flood of requests, far more than I could handle, and the signals from others weren’t helpful. Everything was “important.” Everything was “urgent.” Often, it was both. To handle this effectively, I realized I needed to develop an internal prioritization compass. It wasn’t easy, but it was transformative. Here are 6 strategies to help you build your own: 1/ Be crystal clear on key goals Start by understanding your organization’s goals—at the company, department, and team levels. Attend organizational forums, departmental reviews, or leadership updates to stay informed. When in doubt, use your 1:1s with leaders to ask: What does success look like? 2/ Deeply understand KPIs Metrics guide decision-making, but not all metrics are equally valuable. Take the time to understand your team's or function's key performance indicators (KPIs). Know what they measure, what they mean, and how to assess their impact. 3/ Be assertive to protect priorities Not every task deserves your attention. Practice saying “no” or deferring requests that don’t align with key goals or metrics. Assertiveness is not about being inflexible—it’s about protecting your capacity to focus on what truly matters. 4/ Set and reset expectations Priorities change, and that’s okay. What’s not okay is working on misaligned tasks. Keep open communication with your manager and stakeholders about evolving priorities. When new demands arise, clarify and reset expectations. 5/ Use 1:1s to align with your manager Leverage your 1:1s as a strategic tool. Share your current priorities, validate them against your manager’s expectations, and discuss any conflicts or challenges. 6/ Clarify the escalation process When priorities conflict, don’t let disagreements linger. If you can’t agree quickly, escalate the issue to your manager. This avoids unnecessary churn, ensures trust remains intact, and keeps momentum focused on results. PS: You won’t always get it right—and that’s okay. Treat each misstep as an opportunity to refine your compass. What’s one tip you’ve used to prioritize when everything feels urgent? --- Follow me, tap the (🔔) Omar Halabieh for daily Leadership and Career posts.

So the last part of the blog was about long term thinking. At Zerodha and Rainmatter by Zerodha, we think in decades. It's easier said than done. But it shapes how we decide what to do, what to say, and what to plan for. When we think about products and features, we don't optimize for the short term. This isn't blanket advice. Some things need urgency and immediate action. But product philosophy, team building, and roadmaps should always be viewed through a long-term lens. Most companies can't do this. And that's precisely why you should. Thinking long-term is a competitive advantage hiding in plain sight. Everyone knows it's the right approach. Books talk about it. Founders tweet about it. But when the pressure hits, when revenue dips, when investors ask questions, when competitors launch something shiny. most companies abandon it instantly. The quarterly mindset is seductive. It gives you clear goals. Easy metrics. Fast feedback. You ship something, numbers move, you feel progress. But quarter by quarter, you slowly drift toward decisions that look good on a spreadsheet but hurt the people you serve. Long-term thinking means doing things that make no sense this quarter but compound over years. It means not charging for something you could. Not pushing a feature that would boost engagement but annoy users. Not cutting corners on support even when nobody's watching. It means sometimes leaving money on the table. On purpose. This is hard. Really hard. Because the money is right there. The shortcut is right there. And nobody would blame you for taking it. Your competitors certainly are. But customers notice. Not immediately. Not loudly. They notice in a quiet way that builds over years. They trust you a little more. They stay a little longer. They tell their friends. And one day you realize you've built something that can't be copied, relationship. The companies that win over decades are the ones willing to lose over quarters. Here's what's funny about all of this. Everything we discussed, growth, hiring, life outside work, long-term thinking, none of it is complicated. There are no secrets here. No clever tricks or frameworks with acronyms. The philosophies that build great companies are embarrassingly simple. Focus on your customers, not your competitors. Hire carefully. Let people have lives. Think in years, not months. Simple doesn't mean easy. Simple is actually harder. Because simple offers no place to hide. You can't blame a complex strategy when things go wrong. You can't hide behind sophisticated frameworks. You just have to do the obvious things, consistently, for a very long time. That's the whole game. Do the simple things.

𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐯𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐬: 𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞. Every founder feels the pressure of cycles. A new competitor, a shifting market, or an impatient board can tempt quick fixes. These moves may help in the moment, but they rarely build lasting strength. Compounding works differently. It rewards a philosophy rather than tactics. The approach I share with founders is straightforward: 1. Set a three-year capital allocation policy. Decide in advance how much will go into growth, how much into strengthening the core, and how much you will hold as a buffer. This reduces reactionary decision-making. 2. Identify two leading indicators that predict cash flow. It could be customer retention, repeat purchase rates, or usage frequency. When you track these consistently, you can see problems and opportunities six quarters ahead, long before they hit the P&L. 3. Publish your red lines. Be clear about the trade-offs you will not make whether it is cutting corners on governance, compromising customer trust, or over-leveraging the balance sheet. Markets may punish a single quarter, but they respect consistency in how companies create value. Over time, this discipline compounds into reputation, resilience, and long-term returns. Staying the course is less about ignoring the noise and more about having a philosophy strong enough to guide you through it. #entrepreneurship #motivation #mindset #growth